Quantification of the transmission of classical swine fever virus between herds during the 1997-1998 epidemic in The Netherlands.

Prev Vet Med 42(3-4):219-34 (1999) PMID 10619157

In this study, we describe a method to quantify the transmission of Classical Swine Fever Virus (CSFV) between herds from data collected during the 1997-1998 epidemic in The Netherlands. From the contacts between infected herds and the serological findings shortly before depopulation, we estimated the week of virus introduction and the length of the period over which the herd emitted virus for each CSFV-infected herd. From these data, we estimated the infection-rate parameter beta (the average number of herds infected by one infectious herd during one week) and the herd reproduction ratio, Rh (the average total number of secondary outbreaks caused by one infectious herd, i.e. in its entire infectious period), using a SIR-model for different sets of CSF control measures. When Rh > 1, an epidemic continues to grow. On the other hand, when Rh 1. Consequently, the number of outbreaks continued to grow. After a number of additional measures were implemented, the value of Rh was reduced to 0.5 and the epidemic came to an end. These measures included pre-emptive slaughter of herds that had been in contact with infected herds or were located near an infected herd, increased hygienic procedures, replacement of transports of pigs for welfare reasons by killing of young piglets and a breeding ban, and regional screening for CSF-infected herds by local veterinary practitioners.