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[A score proposal to evaluate surgical risk in patients submitted to myocardial revascularization surgery.]

Revista Brasileira de Cirurgia Cardiovascular 25(4):447 (2010) PMID 21340373

INTRODUCTION: Scores to predict surgical risk in patients submitted to myocardial revascularization surgery are broadly used. OBJECTIVE: To develop a score capable to predict mortality in patients submitted to myocardial revascularization surgery. METHODS: From January 1996 to December 2007, data were collected from 2809 patients submitted to myocardial revascularization surgery at PUC-RS São Lucas Hospital. In 2/3 of the sample (n=1875), the score was developed, after uni and mutivariated analyses. In the remaining 1/3 (n =934) the score was validated. The final score was developed with the total sample, using the same variables (n=2809). The accuracy of the model was tested using the area under the ROC curve. RESULTS: The mean age was 61.3 ±10.1 years and 34% were women. The risk factors identified as independent predictors of surgical mortality and used for score development (parentheses) were: age > 60 years (2), female (2), extracardiac vasculopathy (2), heart failure functional class III and IV (3), ejection fraction 2.5 or dialysis (4), emergency/urgency surgery (16). The area obtained under the ROC curve was 0.86 (CI 0.81-0.9). CONCLUSION: The score developed, using clinical variables easy to obtain (age, sex, extracardiac vasculopathy, functional class, ejection fraction, atrial fibrillation, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, aortic stenosis, creatinine and emergency/urgency surgery) showed capability to predict mortality in patients submitted to myocardial revascularization surgery in our Hospital.

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